Text version:THE GUARDIAN INTERNATIONAL | GLOBAL SECURITY DESK
June 12th, 2025
Shadow Games in Al-Anbar: Regional Tensions Stir as Insurgency PersistsBy Leyla Farouqi, Middle East Correspondent
Ramadi, Iraq
After months of relative calm, the simmering insurgency in Iraq’s Al-Anbar province is showing signs of transformation—one that Western analysts fear may be shifting from fractured militancy into something far more organized and dangerous.
U.S. forces, under the banner of Operation Dust Devil, have reestablished a limited footprint in southern Al-Anbar following a wave of insurgent activity attributed to splinter factions of the once-dominant Sons of al-Karbouli (SoAK). Though initial efforts focused on local security cooperation and counterinsurgency patrols, recent events suggest the conflict is beginning to attract wider regional attention.
Factions Reconstituting, Capabilities Increasing
Western intelligence sources report an uptick in the coordination and tactical proficiency of insurgent groups, particularly the Swords of Tarhid (SoT) and Al-Fulisan Brigade (AFB)—two splinters with ideological and operational footprints reminiscent of Iranian proxy forces seen elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, the Lions of the Tigris (LoT), while seen mostly as arms smugglers, have not gone unnoticed.
“It’s not just more IEDs,” said one NATO analyst on condition of anonymity. “We’re seeing patterns—strategic dispersal, counter-reconnaissance, denial of terrain—that suggest someone is teaching them.”
Though no official attribution has been made, multiple defense officials privately cited an “unusual flow of materiel” across the border with Duresh, the Islamic Republic to Iraq’s northeast. A recent convoy interdiction in the desert south of Naudeh uncovered military-grade electronics and communication devices not typically available to non-state actors in the region.
Political Rhetoric Turning Sharper
Meanwhile in Tabriz, Duresh’s capital, state officials have grown increasingly vocal. In late April, Foreign Minister Dr. Fatemeh Kouhpayeh condemned what she termed “Western destabilization efforts” in Al-Anbar and called for a “regional solution led by the people of the region, not foreign occupiers.” The remarks, while measured, align with a growing chorus of hardline voices within Duresh’s clerical establishment who view the unrest in Iraq as both a religious obligation and strategic opportunity.
At a rally in the city of Qazvin last week, Grand Ayatollah Mahmoud Haeri stated, “The faithful in Iraq cry out for protection. The Sons of Al-Karbouli are no more. If no one answers, Dureshmust.”
While the Dureshi government has denied any direct involvement in Iraq’s security affairs, recent satellite imagery reviewed by independent defense analysts suggests increased activity at military bases near the western city of Bukan, less than 60 kilometers from the Iraqi border.
Caught in the Middle
For the residents of Al-Anbar, these geopolitical undercurrents offer little comfort. In the agricultural town of Idak, roadside bombings have surged in recent weeks as U.S. forces moved against multiple insurgent forces, and several village elders report that previously dormant cells appear rearmed and reorganized.
“Before, they were hiding in the mosques, with AKs and old radios,” said one tribal leader near Gravette. “Now they have uniforms, encrypted phones, even night optics. Who gives these things to farmers?”
UN observers stationed near COP Adler have urged caution. A recent internal report from the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) warned of “an increasingly complex insurgent environment, with growing external ideological and material support.”
Western Officials Watching Closely
While the U.S. Department of Defense maintains that its mission in Iraq remains “advise, assist, and enable,” concerns are mounting that a regional escalation is no longer a distant hypothetical.
“We’re seeing early indicators of proxy dynamics,” said a European diplomat in Baghdad. “It’s not just tribes and ideology anymore—there’s a chessboard forming.”
As Operation Dust Devil enters its next phase, the question for coalition leaders is no longer simply how to dismantle insurgent networks—but whether they’re still dealing with insurgents at all.
Disappearance of Nouri Al-Karbouli
In oddly related local news, a missing persons report was filed with local Baghdad police for the former politician Nouri Al-Karbouli last Tuesday by his wife. Mostly known for his strong political campaign and nationalist views at ‘restoring Iraq’s former glory’, Karbouli retired and disappeared from political life last year when the extremist group that bore his name had directly engaged with US forces present to assist in the region. While his wife claims her husband simply never came home, the peculiarity of the case comes from the apparent break-in at his home that seems to have only resulted in the stealing of his journal, according to police. No further updates have been publicized yet as the story is still developing.
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The entirety of this document represents fictional works of the 506th Infantry Regiment Realism Unit, S-2 Intelligence Shop, developed for use within the Arma Reforger military simulation video games, and exists purely for entertainment and educational purposes only. The story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred.
