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INSCOM IR - Kupale Area of Operations Assessment

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1LT J. N. Lee:
SECRET//NOFORN --- 19AUG2023

UNITED STATES ARMY

INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMAND, FORT BELVOIR, VA19 AUGUST 2023

(S) Kupale Area of Operations Assessment
(U) Overview

(S) The following document is intended to prepare members of the 506th IRRU for operations in the Republic of Kupale by outlining the traits of the islands, as well as providing general background history that may provide useful context to the region.

(S) The current status of the area of operations (AO) and how it has been affected by hostile parties is presently not well-understood outside of open-source observations and very recent, unverified conditions. Battlefield conditions are therefore subject to re-assessment.

(U) Publicly-sourced information makes up the bulk of the following section.

Noun(s): Republic of Kupale, KupaleCapital: LoholohoPopulation Metrics: Urban 34%, +/- 1.5% annual changeEthnicity: Kupalese 92%, French 4%, Portuguese 2%, Malaysian 1%, Other 1%Language: French (official) 89%, Portuguese 5%, Malaysian 4%, Other 2%Major Religions: Christian 90%, Islam 7%, Other 3%Climate: TropicalNatural Resources: Nickel, cobalt, graphite, chromite, coal, lumber, fishTime zone: UTC +05 (Echo Time Zone)Currency: Euro
(U) Historical Data

(U) Originally settled by Polynesian seafarers in ancient times, the Republic of Kupale is a jungle archipelago with a history as diverse as its terrain. Bantu-speaking African tribes are thought to have made first contact, and later, Arab traders from the Middle East brought knowledge of Kupale to Europe. In time, Portuguese and Spanish explorers arrived in search of the exotic and dueled for primacy, whose influences can still be seen in modern day Kupale. Finally, the islands were ceded to French colonists in the 19th century, which gave rise to violent suppression of local tradition and harsh exploitation of the local resources. An independence movement grew out of this dichotomy, initially in the form of violently-repressed revolts in 1947 which eventually gave way to official independence from France in 1979. Accordingly, the government of Kupale was established upon a policy of democratic government that favored balance between local customs and modernization projects.

Colonial map of Kupale, complete with a misspelled Pulau Monyet.
(U) Due to its remoteness, The Republic of Kupale has developed in relative obscurity since its independence, and has often found itself on numerous exotic traveling location checklists across the world. The majority of the population is divided between the two main islands, Pulau Gurun and Pulau Monyet, with the surrounding satellite islands being home to small fishing villages or abandoned French and/or Japanese military fortifications. Pulau Monyet has seen almost half of its land mass converted to farmland while Pulau Gurun has focused more on fishing and logging. Both main islands and many of the smaller islands are dotted with colonial or WW2 bunkers and compounds, and although the threat of unexploded ordinance is long past, the remnants of these conflicts can be easily spotted by an observant individual.

UN personnel delivering aid after a damaging local storm, July 2008.
(S) Kupalese history is faithfully taught to school-age children and is still present in the backdrop of local politics. Foreign occupiers will not be easily trusted, especially those with no claim in the region; it is possible locals will not respond well to American troops, especially if this sentiment is weaponized by enemy assets. S-2 believes that any damages that can be attributed to friendly forces will negatively impact intelligence and operational goals in the AO.

(U) Climate and Weather Assessment

(U) The Republic sits squarely in the center of the warmest ocean basin on the planet, where the upper layer often reaches 28 C (82 F). The monthly average temperature during the day rarely ever drops below 30 C (86 F), and humidity follows suit, remaining steady at 80% or higher. At night, temperatures drop to more reasonable levels around 22 C (72 F), and gets cooler the further inland one travels. Due to the proximity to the Indian Ocean subtropical anticyclone, fog is a frequent occurrence, and the islands receive regular rainfalls throughout the year, with the only dry month being March.

(S) Heavy fog at dawn and dusk frequently results in low visibility conditions, which should be taken into consideration by commanders during planning, especially for air assault operations. Combined with the year-round rainfalls, surveillance and close air support platforms may find themselves heavily limited in effectiveness under certain conditions.

(U) Terrain Assessment

(U) Roughly 60% of the main two islands that comprise Kupale are both covered in tropical jungles, with the remaining portions heavily favoring current or prospective farmland. Rice provides the bulk of produce and export, while much smaller amounts of other cash crops such as coffee and sweet potatoes supply vital income to the economy. Aside from farming, the local population also engages heavily in fishing and logging, the latter of which is slowly clearing through the afore-mentioned jungles. Both main islands feature very rough terrain with swamps, ponds and lakes featured prominently in the landscape, in part due to natural volcanic/tectonic activity, and in part due to the aggressive bombing campaigns by the French air force.

Kupalese farmers and loggers at work.
(U) Only 8-10% of the island is considered urbanized or residential, with the Loholoho Walled City on Pulau Gurun the largest and most impressive of these settlements; it is also one of the few towns located within an island interior and is the informal seat of government. Other towns of note are Nirwana, a tourism-focused town on the South of Pulau Monyet; Tabako, a farming village nested within the ruins of a WW2 fort to the North of Pulau Monyet; and Kinandal, a beach front village built around an ancient pagan ritual site to the East of Pulau Gurun. Coastal towns with fisheries and wharfs make up the remaining civilian communities.

Picture from a civilian plane flying over Gurun Airfield just before dawn, with Loholoho in view.
(U) While the highest elevation in the archipelago is a mere 89 meters ASL, undulating hills in the thicket render many of the jungle reaches austere and impenetrable to vehicles. Going off-road on vehicles not intended for the purpose is not recommended, not only because of the afore-mentioned rough terrain, but also due to the high likelihood of said vehicles becoming stuck in the uncountable number of muddy swamps scattered across the islands. Elevation changes are more stable toward the cleared-away interior areas and civilian settlements, but notable features can be found at elevation everywhere in Kupale.

(S) The terrain dictates that all BLUFOR operations taking place must commit to amphibious or air assault operations to facilitate effective transportation of troops across islands. For inland travel, convoys are only possible on clearly-defined MSRs, where heavier, larger capacity MRAPs may still find themselves constrained. Lighter vehicles such as the JLTV are recommended.

(S) Several travel planning websites mention “tunnel exploration” as an activity for tourists on the island. No photographs of these tunnels appear to exist, but locating them and their disposition is a priority intelligence requirement as it would serve to explain how enemy forces have avoided direct observation.

(S) All-Source Intelligence Overview

(C) Open-Source (OSINT): Internet connectivity is very limited throughout the Republic, with most if not all outgoing OSINT originating from tourists, expats and local government workers. Local culture suggests an aversion to taking pictures and videos of historical landmarks and/or locations of cultural significance, such as graves or religious sites. This has contributed to the difficulty of gathering intelligence from OSINT sources.

(S) Signals (SIGINT): Per previous success from the Harold E Holt Naval Communication Station intercepting OPFOR VLF radio traffic, SIGINT collection will continue to be a key contributor to intelligence gathering throughout this operation. However, the recent disruption has nullified any possibility of continued contribution from the station in the near future, at least until proper cybersecurity and electronic warfare countermeasures are established.

(S) Imagery (IMINT): OPFOR's demonstrated proficiency in electronic warfare and counter-intelligence necessitates a delay in real-time satellite imagery of the AO to avoid inadvertently revealing surveillance efforts prematurely. All satellite images below were taken during the period between 2013 and 2021 by civilian Earth imaging satellites. Once ground elements have confirmed OPFOR counter-intelligence capabilities and/or come into contact, ISR efforts will be mobilised to identify further points of interest.

(S) Human-Source (HUMINT): Due to previous colonial history, Kupale civilians' and government's inherent distrust of global powers has heavily suppressed any recruitment efforts towards gaining human source assets, through official channels or otherwise. Past UN relief efforts during natural disasters have gone some way towards repairing relations, however its remote location means the Republic of Kupale has not had many opportunities for diplomacy and trade on the world stage, and perception of foreign powers have been frozen in time since the 1980s. It is therefore a priority for Havoc to re-establish any connections Goliath and Chaos may have had with local HUMINT sources before their disappearance, avoid damage to civilian structures wherever possible, and look for aid and relief opportunities to demonstrate trustworthiness.

(S) Points of Interest

(S) Positions of military interest are relatively obvious. Gurun Airfield and Monyet Airfield; Loholoho Walled City on Pulau Gurun; Nirwana on Pulau Monyet; the abandoned castle and fort at [GRIDREF 0608]; as well as clusters of abandoned bunker complexes. There are also older structures on the island that may have been repurposed into fighting positions.


(S) Loholoho Walled City is built within the remains of a 17th century fortress. Remnants of smaller forts also dot the nearby terrain on Pulau Gurun. These positions may be vulnerable to modern heavy explosives and show signs of wear and tear, but nevertheless provide pre-made fighting positions with good sightlines to whichever force controls them.


(S) Friendly forces will most likely need to air assault in order to strike efficiently. Therefore, both major airfields are deemed as vital objectives to secure and maintain in order to facilitate this strategy as well as to logistically supply ongoing operations.


(S) Bunker systems established by Japanese scout forces during WW2 can be found in several commanding positions throughout the island. These provide an additional layer of defensive consideration to a prospective adversary.


(S) Any tunnel or hidden trench system that exists must be relayed up the chain of command as soon as it is found, as such a place would be a likely location to hide key leadership or communication nodes in an enemy defense scheme, caches, etc.

(S) Summary

(S) Until actual OPFOR goals and troop movements are identified, it can be safely assumed that any occupying or otherwise-hostile force on the island will be postured near local points of interest–especially those with tactical or strategic benefit. Enemy forces will most likely choose places of advantage to fight, and attack or show themselves when in a strong position using the advantage of fog and low visibility weather conditions. It is therefore imperative that friendly forces destabilize the ability of enemy forces to control the islands of Kupale in order to cut off any notional plans at the root.



Original Classifying Authority: 1-506th S-2 Intelligence
Classified By: 1LT Jae Lee, SSG Neil White, CPL Phillips
Reason: 1.4(a), (c), (d)
Declassify On: 20480820


END REPORT

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