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INSCOM Intelligence Report 15JUL22 - Theater of Ops Overview: Turkmenistan

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1LT (Ret) Mallory:
SECRET//NOFORN

UNITED STATES ARMY

INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMAND, FORT BELVOIR, VA15 JUL 2022

(S) Theater of Operations Overview: Turkmenistan


(U) Administrative
*All acronyms used in this brief are proactively defined and used strictly for the streamlining of text & characters. If you are unsure of an acronym being used, it is defined/transcribed in its full length upon its initial use, and then abbreviated for subsequent use.

NOFORN or NF: Classification headers used to indicate "No Foreign Dissemination", which indicates that the following material is restricted to all non-US forces, organizations, and agencies under the method of dissemination. Historically, the marker "REL TO" followed by the countries authorized for dissemination was used, however, this is now only utilized when disseminating to specific nations or entities beyond the US.

For further questions, send questions or requests for information up to your respective Chain of Command & directed at S-2.

(S//NF) Operations Overview: Turkmenistan

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ePUCOGDLNGn5p2UkAQwYZCdFksiHpj16/view?usp=sharing

(S//NF) Text Transcription

Spoiler (click to show/hide)3. Factbook Overview
Spoiler (click to show/hide) Noun(s): Turkmenians, Turkmens
Capital: Ashgabat
Population Metrics: 53% urban, +/- 2.2% Annual change
Ethnicity: Turkmen- 85%, Uzbek- 5%, Russian- 4%, Other- 6%
Language: Turkmen (official) 72%, Russian 12%, Uzbek 9%, Other 7%
Major Religions: Muslim 93%, Christian 6.4%
Climate: Subtropical desert, arid desert
Natural Resources: Petroleum, natural gas, sulfur, salt
Geography (Country): 488,100 (total); 469,930 (land); 18,170 (water) sq km
Time zone: UTC+05 (TMT), MIL: ECHO
Currency: Manat (divided into 100 tenge)
Exchange Rate: 1m= Approx. $3.51 USD

Travel Distances By Land:
Turkmenabat to Mary: Approx. 3 hours
Ashgabat to Mary: Approx. 4 hours
Ashgabat to Turkmenbashi: Approx. 5.5 hours
Ashgabat to Dashoguz: Approx. 7.5 hours

4. Factbook Overview (Con't)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)Present-day Turkmenistan covers territory that has been at the crossroads of civilizations for centuries. The area was ruled in antiquity by various Persian empires, and was conquered by Alexander the Great, Muslim armies, the Mongols, Turkic warriors, and eventually the Russians. In 1924, Turkmenistan became a Soviet republic; it achieved independence upon the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.
Turkmenistan is divided into five provinces or welayatlar (singular welayat) and one capital city district (Ashgabat City). The provinces are subdivided into districts (etraplar, sing. etrap), which may be either counties or cities.
Cities themselves are often organized into boroughs and even micro-districts, reportedly used for the management of municipal utilities coverage and zoning.

6. Climate & Weather Data (Cont'd)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)Climate & Weather BLUF:

A cold desert continental climate makes for long, hot, and dry summers from May through September, and peak temperatures during the months of July and August, sometimes exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
Expect constant winds, notably from the north, northeast, and west. These winds persist throughout the year at varying strengths, and as a result, will keep the humidity lower than other tropical & subtropical desert climates throughout the Middle Eastern AOR.
Humidity extremes make for greater loss of the body’s water content through evaporation or perspiration, meaning drink more water!!!
Constant winds + dry conditions = debris and blowing sand factor. Increased discipline regarding changing visibility conditions and the functional state of weapons & equipment!!!
The wider temperature variance between day and night due to continental climate will result in colder nights, especially away from the Caspian Sea. Expect cold weather, even during summer!

7. Locale & Terrain Analysis
Spoiler (click to show/hide)*Local altitude ranges between 2000-2800 feet at sea level (ASL)

The majority of Turkmenistan is a sparsely populated desert, with human habitation concentrated around water sources and major rivers- primarily, the Murghab, the Amu Darya, the Atrek, and the Tejen. 
Many residential buildings or huts may be sandstone or formed clay in construction, particularly in smaller communities.
1st crop harvest is coming to a conclusion, so expect to see less green in some of the farming areas- others complete their harvest in early September.
Beyond central and south Turkmenistan, the country is predominantly flat/level, with only gradually rolling dunes as part of the Karakum Desert.
The land on and around the Southern Inhabited Shelf (SIS) in Mary Province, including the Kirov Plateau, as well as many large geographical features such as a valley &  mountainous areas. The Kirov Plateau itself has several large areas used for cotton farming and harvesting, with long, open plains that can stretch for kilometers.
Hardball/pavement throughout the country is limited to cities, developed communities, and major national roads.

8-9. Recent Events Review
Spoiler (click to show/hide)24 MAY - Rigged Turkmen election results declared Stepan Murtazayev, son of incumbent Turkmen President Usmon Murtazayev, the next president of Turkmenistan
28 MAY - Former Turkmen President Usmon Murtazayez assassinated in Turkmenbashi under cover of a violent demonstration
29 MAY - Riots and violent clashes as a result of growing food shortages lead to a massacre in Turkmenbashi; martial law declared; Turkmen Armed Forces mobilized as “peacekeepers”
04 JUN - Uzbekistan limits border crossings from Turkmenistan- impacting food shipments to Turkmenistan; US, UK nonessential personnel begin voluntary departure from embassies in Ashgabat, US Department of State (DoS) travel advisory upgraded to Level 3
29-30 JUN - US Embassy elevates to ordered departure of all non-essential personnel and dependants; US DoS issues Level 4 travel advisory & advises all current US citizens in country to leave.
02 JUL - Violence breaks out in Ashgabat, reports of infighting between Turkmen military units. UN Resolution 2637 ratified, authorizing the formation of armed forces as part of the United Nations Operation in Turkmenistan (UNOTURM) mission. 
03 JUL - Capital fighting extends to other significant cities across Turkmenistan.
04 JUL - UNOTURM mobilization efforts are approximately 20% complete, with around 3,000 troops and supporting forces mobilized across southern Uzbekistan.
09 JUL - Live broadcast held by two senior members of the New World Turkmenia Youth Party, details new government & announces execution of Murtazayev family, including sitting President Stepan Murtazayev.
10 JUL -UNOTURM initial mobilization is complete, with approx. 10,000 troops staged in Urgench & 5,000 UN troops deployed to Bukhara, initial relief efforts begin in northern Turkmenistan.
11 JUL - Uzbekistan pulls nearly 2,500 personnel from its more than 3,500 allocated personnel due to national unrest throughout the Karabalpak region, diminishing UN deployment forces in Bukhara by 40%.
13 JUL - US forces seize three regional airports throughout central & southern Mary, paving the way for follow-on ground & air-assault forces as part of Operation CLEAR SKIES.

10. Current Situation
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(CUI) The Turkmen Youth Revolution, which began on 7/2, has resulted in the systematic purging of Turkmen regime members, supporters, or benefactors from major population centers including the capital of Ashgabat, Turkmenabat, Turkmenbashi, and Mary.
Evidence indicates that purging ranges from forced relocation to extrajudicial killings and mass murder- both clear crimes against humanity as defined by the International Criminal Court (ICC). 
Those able to flee from their homes have either escaped across the Uzbek-Turkmen border to the north or remained in country & fled west towards the coast. The establishment of the “New World Turkmenia Youth Party” was announced in a broadcast on 7/10, hosted by two individuals identifying themselves as party representatives.
The New World Turkmenia Party is reported to have rapidly reorganized military and logistical capabilities in spite of the former government’s collapse. Chiefly, the New World Revolutionary Corps (NWRC) has been formed as the backbone of the party’s military and security forces.
NWRC forces are currently attempting to increase both numbers and influential control over unstable villages throughout large cities and inhabited areas, primarily focusing on recruiting support from armed militia groups which have emerged from previous resistance movements under the pre-revolution regime.
Judging by the efforts of the NWRC to recruit and train local militants, who range in organization and capability, it is assumed that they are aiming to secure stability in communities throughout the capital & Mary in order to gain legitimacy for their cause.
This situation for citizens affected by food & water shortages throughout Mary is desperate, with many teetering on the brink between capitulating to the local militia’s demands for cooperation and being forced to evacuate without resources and likely dying in the process.

13. Current SITREP: UNOTURM
Spoiler (click to show/hide)“UN WHITE” is the designation for UNOTURM operations focused on the capital of Ashgabat and central Turkmenistan.
UN WHITE forces have encountered increasingly heavy and organized resistance from NWRC and local militias established across the northern villages and farmlands of Ashgabat, and seem to be conducting orchestrated retrograde maneuvers, aimed at either delaying or limiting the unimpeded advance of UN peacekeepers from the north. Resources and supplies remain robust, however logistical hardships due to a lack of rotary-wing aircraft supporting and streamlining aid distribution efforts is hindering the rate and speed at which aid can be brought in and properly distributed to locals.
“UN BLUE” is the designation for UNOTURM operations and efforts throughout Mary Province.
UN BLUE is currently holding in place across the northern end of Mary Province due to significant manning shortfalls as a result of Uzbekistan recalling of nearly half of UN BLUE’s allocated personnel. This has affected operations across the board and is expected to last indefinitely until further UN forces can arrive in Uzbekistan.

14. Short-Term Future Operations: UNOTURM
Spoiler (click to show/hide)UN WHITE Operations in Ashgabat & Northern Turkmenistan
UN WHITE’s primary mission is to work in coordination with US forces’ 2nd Marines & 24th MEU to secure the northern end of the capital of Ashgabat, with the highest focus set on capturing and securing Ashgabat International Airport to enable the greatly expanded capability of relief and humanitarian operations throughout the entire country.
UN BLUE Operations in Mary Province
UN BLUE requires urgent US force’s assistance in delivering and distributing aid throughout Mary Province, as well as force projection maneuvers intended to draw local militia fighters being supported by NWRC forces away from continuing targeted and coordinated attacks against UN peacekeepers, made even more urgent with depleted staff across the entire UN WHITE mission task force. Once additional manning arrives to reinforce across the northern & eastern edges of the province, UN BLUE should be able to continue to expand its efforts in peacekeeping across the region.
UN SILVER is a third UN task force slated to be deployed once formed in the next 7-10 days to support humanitarian relief & peacekeeping operations across the western area of Turkmenistan & aiming to curtail the threat from TAF & Turkmen loyalist forces which have retreated from the east & capital towards the Caspian Sea.

15. Major Development - Ambush of UN Forces, 7/12
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(CUI) On 12 JUL at approx. 1158 local, UN WHITE peacekeepers came under coordinated attack from multiple armed groups near the town of Zahmet, in northeastern Mary province.
(S) The ambush and subsequent attack lasted for around 90 minutes and drove both company-sized UN elements from the area until the following day when the UN forces returned to set up defensive positions to ward off further attacks.
(CUI) Thirty-six UN personnel were killed, with another 30 wounded & 11 reported as unaccounted for, either missing or presumed captured by the attackers. Numerous vehicles and supplies are also unaccounted for as a result of the attack.
(S) A video captured via cell phone from the mounted camera of one of the militants shows both the NWRC and an unknown militia group coordinating to attack UN forces.

16. US Operations in Turkmenistan: Operation CLEAR SKIES
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(CUI) US Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCOS) had directed United States Central Command (CENTCOM) to deploy combat troops and combat support infrastructure in support of humanitarian and peacekeeping operations carried out by UNOTURM, which has been divided across two primary areas of operation.
(CUI) Initial force allocation has been set at 20,000 personnel, divided across two operational regions in country & each focused on the two cities (Ashgabat and Mary) identified as NWRC & militant strongholds, as well as their surrounding inhabited villages.
(S) Operation ARDENT GALE will task forces from the 2nd Marine Division (2nd MARDIV) to secure the capital of Ashgabat in preparation for the arrival of UNOTURM peacekeepers and humanitarian aid to the surrounding city, who will then set up a semi-permanent presence in support of the capital in order to ensure stable grounds to reconstitute a functional government for Turkmenistan & enable the UNOTURM relief and assistance mission.
(S) Operation CLEAR SKIES will consist of a combined Army & Air Force airborne initiative whose focus is to destabilize and disrupt known and emergent belligerent strongholds throughout the southern inhabited shelf of Mary Province. The defining objective is to envelop and decisively defeat NWRC and any proxy forces throughout southern Mary Province, before pressing to support UNOTURM’s mission to provide direct support to the city of Mary.

17. Status of Forces Brief
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(S) 82nd ABN has reported successful seizure and holding of all designated objectives, including Objective STRATUS, enabling 1-506th operations to proceed without delay or adjustment to the planned arrival date of 15JUL (top left image).
(S) 2nd Marines & 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are slated to initiate an air assault on a farming region east of the outskirts of Ashgabat at 2200 on 16JUL, establishing an operations base to enable coordination with UN “WHITE” forces (bottom right image).
(C) U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet (C5F) surface vessels have been maneuvered 15nm off the coast of southern Pakistan to provide aviation support and serve as the forward deployment mechanism for 2nd Marines’ air assault into NE Ashgabat.
(S) Current intelligence indicates an increase in Iranian Army (AJA) patrol frequency and the number of personnel along border checkpoints but does not currently reflect any attempt to amass forces that would indicate possible involvement or intent to intercede in Turkmenistan.

18. 1st Brigade Combat Team (BCT ONE) Mission Overview
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(C) US Army and Air Force operations will focus deployment of forces across the southern inhabited shelf (SIS) of Mary Province.
(S) Specifically, 1BCT will initiate combat operations in the valley network approximately 10-20 km south of the village of Kirov, near the southern point of the Kirov Plateau.
(S) Immediately following the airfield seizure by elements of the 82nd Airborne, 1BCT will relieve and assume control of Istochnik Regional Airport (designated AIRBASE STRATUS), establishing critical battlespace support functions to enable necessary support and combat operations to be conducted from the airport.

19. Force Analysis Overview: Turkmen Armed Forces
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(C) Turkmen Armed Forces (TAF), also known as the Turkmen National Loyalist Forces, or simply Turkmen Loyalist force have spent the last week attempting to consolidate and rally whatever combat-capable troops they may have left which still hold loyalty to the previous Murtazayev regime, or to the country’s state of being prior to the Turkmen Youth Revolution on 7/2.
(S//NF) Source reporting indicates that TAF or other “loyalist” forces may have been issued orders to not cooperate with UN peacekeepers; US Marine Reconnaissance elements in country have confirmed evidence of Turkmen uniformed forces engaging UN peacekeepers west of the capital.
(CUI) TAF/loyalist forces should NOT be considered friendly forces. US forces should be prepared to defend themselves IAW theater and unit-specified Standing Rules of Engagement & Standing Rules for the Use of Force. (SROE/SRUF)
(S//NF) Any engagements involving TAF or other loyalist forces who operate under the same flag and uniform are reported immediately to J-2 Joint Intelligence via your local S-2 shop immediately with a detailed AAR of the engagement.

20. Force Analysis Overview: New World Revolutionary Corps (NWRC)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(C) NWRC forces represent the post-military coup arm of Turkmenistan, all of whom benefited from formal military training that ranges from local territorial forces, to infantry and combat arms, as well as special operations and military intelligence. The “New World'' stems their belief that in order for Turkmenistan to truly prosper, it must shed its Slavic influences and past connections alike, blaming the deteriorating state not just on those who supported the Murtazayev regime, but also those who lacked the will to stand up to it.
(S//NF) NWRC forces have been responsible for carrying out extrajudicial killings and mass murder of both captive TAF & similar loyalist-aligned forces, supporters, and even benefactors under the previous regime. 
(S) Initial assessment strongly suggests that a rapid disruption of NWRC operations and influence can be achieved through US & UN forces’ ability to effectively distribute aid while providing security and protection against NWRC forces, as well as any militia groups who may proxy as security forces for the country.
(CUI) NWRC forces should be considered hostile & engaged under unit-issued Standing Rules of Engagement & Standing Rules for The Use of Force (SROE/SRUF).


PAGE 1 of 2
Original Classifying Authority: 1-506th S-2 Intelligence
Classified By: 1LT Jason Mallory, WO1 Juan Reynoso, SSG Erik Speirs, SGT Mike Jaeger, SGT Neil White, SGT Andrew Price
Reason: 1.4(a), (c), (d)
Declassify On: 20470715

1LT (Ret) Mallory:
SECRET//NOFORN

UNITED STATES ARMY

INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMAND, FORT BELVOIR, VA15 JUL 2022

(S) Theater of Operations Overview: Turkmenistan


(S//NF) Text Transcription (Continued)

Turkmenistan Theater of Operations Overview text

Spoiler (click to show/hide)21. Force Analysis Overview: Local Militias & Armed Militants
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(S) There are an emerging number of militant factions which have been formed throughout settled areas of Turkmenistan, particularly in the vicinity of Ashgabat and Mary. Reports have indicated that a number of these groups have received both material support and training through the Turkmen Youth Resistance movement prior to the revolution on 7/2, and continue to receive support in the form of weapons and food supplies. Additionally, evidence is indicating that many of these militia groups are leveraging food stores and supplies into coercing locals to increase support for them, and by extension, the NWRC.
(S) Several of these formed militias have already aligned themselves with the NWRC forces, the most significant are:
-New Turkmenia Nationalists
-Allah Sadikahu
-Aswad-Murghab Brotherhood
-7/7 Martyrs
(CUI) As part of the UN & US forces mandate for the UNOTURM mission, any armed combatants who are engaged in armed conflict, or performing hostile acts with peacekeeping or aid relief operations in Turkmenistan are considered hostile.
(S//NF) Success in the region is critically dependent on destabilizing/undermining the local support of faction leaders who are not sympathetic to UN & US presence in country.

22. All-Source Intelligence Overview: Turkmenistan
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(C) Open-Source (OSINT): Due to very limited internet connectivity at the residential and even commercial level throughout the country, in conjunction with the shutdown of censored internet services and cellular phone networks throughout the country since the beginning of June, there is extremely limited OSINT collection opportunities available.
(S//NF) Signals (SIGINT): Due to the near non-existent ambient signals presence throughout the country, combined with the widespread use of varying frequencies of handheld & remote radio systems, SIGINT collection is likely to drive an overwhelming amount of derivative-based intelligence for the onset, if not entirety of operations in Turkmenistan.
(S//NF) Imagery (IMINT): Imagery support will remain periodically available through global & theater-level assets courtesy of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), in conjunction with region-level assets, which may be limited in continuous coverage due to logistical & geopolitical restrictions. However, after the insertion of forces as part of Operation CLEAR SKIES, local & regional-level IMINT capabilities should fill all consumer demands in a timely manner.
(S//NF) Human-Source (HUMINT): Due to the volatility of events on the ground, new face of national governance, and the general state of fear as purges of Murtazayev regime loyalist and benefactors continues, there is a limited willingness or window for recruitment of human source assets. However, as the effectiveness of aid and relief efforts begin to take form, it is expected that the the feasibility of source recruitment and development will rise with influx of new intelligence regarding the NWRC & the ruling party, especially as combatants are captured, interrogated, and debriefed.

23. International Interests Analysis
Spoiler (click to show/hide)(C) Statements made by the New World Turkmenia Youth Party have strongly indicated the significance of threat felt from the very prospect of UN & US forces in their country, as an outside entity able to restore order and provide a suitable framework for governance for their country would categorically undermine their prospects for control over its people.
(S//NF) While no evidence is immediately present, there exists a high risk of interference from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), due to a higher achievable stability of petroleum oil and natural gas over Iran. The PRC’s latest shift from Turkmenistan to Erzikistan is likely to exploit the lessened cost of doing business with Iran, while also allowing Erzikistan to act as a “layer of protection” against supply instabilities which are likely to come from Iranian investment. In short, it is a high likelihood that the PRC will attempt to exploit the fluidity of the situation and even provide material support to the NWRC in order to foster support & attempt to frustrate US efforts to support intended peacekeeping operations.
(S//NF) The Russian Federation has publicly insisted on both no concern for the deteriorating state of affairs in Turkmenistan, as well as neighboring Uzbekistan. However, evidence has suggested an increase in Russian foreign intelligence apparatus activity in Turkmenistan, the extent and focus of which remains unknown.
(S//NF) Information is beginning to suggest via observations of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) used by some members of the NWRC that foreign support, specifically training, is becoming apparent. The most likely avenue of this is via hired mercenaries, though there is no immediate evidence suggesting which nation or organization is providing training.

24. Foreign Intelligence Entity (FIE) & Counterintelligence (CI) Brief
Spoiler (click to show/hide)Primary FIE Threat: Undetermined
“Loose Tweets SINK FLEETS!”
***Maintain OPSEC at all times!!! If you see something, SAY SOMETHING.***
(C) Current state of Turkmenistan will impact/limit the effectiveness of exploitation, however, collection may remain unaffected or minimally impacted. Elements of the Turkmenistan Ministry of National Security (MNB) were key conspirators in the pre-revolution and resistance movement against the Murtazayev regime, and many have retained positions of equal or improved command and resources under the NWRC.
(S//NF) Situation on the ground is FLUID- actions that local communities view as negative or destructive to their way of life, including injury, death, or destruction of property may have exponentially negative consequences for US and/or coalition troops operating throughout the theater, snowballing into a broad-level collection effort against US & UN forces operating regionally or even nationwide.
(S) Minimize the use or inclusion with gear all non-essential personal electronic devices, especially those which are capable of holding personal information.
(CUI) Personally owned global-positioning devices, fitness trackers, or other devices capable of recording, retaining, or sending location data are prohibited!
(CUI) Personal cellular devices are prohibited unless expressly authorized in writing by your commanding officer or organization.


PAGE 2 of 2
END OF REPORT
Original Classifying Authority: 1-506th S-2 Intelligence
Classified By: 1LT Jason Mallory, WO1 Juan Reynoso, SSG Erik Speirs, SGT Mike Jaeger, SGT Neil White, SGT Andrew Price
Reason: 1.4(a), (c), (d)
Declassify On: 20470715

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