Operation CLEAR SKIES Phase 08-22 - TASK FORCE ALPHA
S-2 Intelligence Brief//07NOV2022
//SECRET//
Operation/Patrol Time:
- 0400 Local
Weather/Forecast Information:
- Current Temp: 52F | Today's High: 66F | Tonight's Low: 39F | Current Humidity: 51%, dropping to 34% by 1515 Local | Wind out of the NE at 7-9 mph, with occasional gusts up to 12 mph. A reminder that as temperatures continue to drop to sustain hydration routine, as well as proper packing of base and external layered clothing- nightly low temps are beginning to dip to near freezing in the coming weeks.
Lighting/Visibility Factors:
- Cloudy | Visibility greater than or equal to 5NM (nautical miles) | Sunset tonight is 1749 & sunrise tomorrow is 0724.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
- With the successful seizure of Objectives NIMBUS and ALTUS, NWRC air power capability has been decisively disrupted, with at least half of their useable combat craft destroyed or rendered inoperable. Additionally, the elimination of the air defense systems located at each has dramatically reduced the threat to US aircraft operating across the AO. However, anti-air threats in the form of MANPADS-related capabilities, such as fixed chairs and true man-portable employment, are still plentiful and do pose a significant threat to rotary airframes- flying air missions over uncleared or unsecured areas presents a high risk of engagement by hostile MANPADS.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- The capture of both NWRC-held airbases in Severkuldzha, along with consistent low-level strikes against training camps and outposts over the last several weeks has had a marked impact on operations across the UN BLUE AO. It is becoming increasingly evident that fewer of the locals are willing to pick up arms against US and coalition forces, and the NWRC is deploying more of its regular forces as a result. While that may be more resting on combat morale and less on the success of the humanitarian and aid mission, it is still progress towards disrupting the NWRC's actions against their own people.
Local/Tactical-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- Due to varying levels of damage to each of the runways, current estimates limit each of the runways to smaller aircraft for the next 7-14 days. However, aid and supplies have slowly made their way to each of the bases, one of which is being oriented as a relief and logistical hub for the entire province, while the other is being fitted for coalition peacekeeping operations support.
Special Info/Patrol Objective-specific Intelligence
- Several NWRC positions and checkpoints have been identified along the winding road that runs parallel west and northwest of AIRBASE NIMBUS. This road serves as a land logistical route for each of the bases, and most recently, the method of withdrawal and regrouping for NWRC forces still operating to the west and north of our current AO. It is unclear as to the level of support that the hamlets and residents in proximity to this road, if any, are providing to the NWRC forces in and around, so remain alert for the possibility of armed fighters during the course of the patrol as well. At least two APCs have been observed at the northernmost checkpoint, most likely the grounds for a quick-reaction force for checkpoints to their south.
S-2 Intelligence Brief//12NOV2022
//SECRET//
Operation/Patrol Time:
- 0830 Local
Weather/Forecast Information:
- Current Temp: 52F | Today's High: 63F | Tonight's Low: 41F | Current Humidity: 62%, dropping to 27% by 1500 Local | Wind out of the SE at 10-12 mph, with occasional gusts up to 20 mph.
Lighting/Visibility Factors:
- Cloudy with partial showers | Visibility greater than or equal to 6NM (nautical miles) | Sunset tonight is 1743 & sunrise tomorrow is 0730.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
- Major air defense systems in Severkuldzha have been neutralized, but the spike of recovered Strela, Igla, and even US-made FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS is creating a bigger concern for air missions- rotary in particular, due to their plentifulness among NWRC weapons caches, portability, and very low observability & risk of detection. Remain highly vigilant for such threats, and ensure engagements or encounters are reported and communicated so as to ensure all aircraft are in the loop regarding emergent air defense threat locations.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- NWRC troop movements across the Southern Inhabited Shelf (SIS) seem to be aimed at rallying fighters and uniformed Corps regulars to the roads and lands south of Sultanbent, while also attempting to reinforce an apparent defensive line to the north of Severkuldzha. There are conflicting theories as to what the NWRC's endgame is in this part of the province, as recovered information and intelligence have become increasingly sparse, and intercepts are becoming less and less reliable.
Local/Tactical-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- Supply and logistical delays are still being hindered by the damage to the runways, however, combat aircraft are still able to safely sortie without increased risk of mishap. Engineers say the runways should be fully operational by the end of the week.
- While the most significant NWRC strongholds in the Severkuldzha plateau have been decisively disrupted, there are still strong pockets of forces attempting to regroup along the roads leading north, in an attempt to hedge and possibly counterattack in an attempt to delay further movement of supplies and aid to the villages north.
Special Info/Patrol Objective-specific Intelligence
- Before the NWRC can successfully reinforce positions along the land routes north, the battalion is attaching several small but rapidly mobilized supply convoys to be deployed to the front once the intended hamlets and villages can be cleared and rendered safe. While this will result in a slightly longer delivery of aid to intended locations, it should increase the safety of aid that locals so desperately need. As for the route itself- there's no soft way to put this, but the terrain for this patrol flat-out sucks. Winding roads that limit overlapping fields of fire, valleys and chokepoints are highly susceptible to ambush from multiple sides, and an enemy at least somewhat aware of how to leverage this advantage. Any delay to these patrols would allow the NWRC to further prepare positions in defense of these roads and northern villages, while also delaying our window to rout entrenched fighters and effectively provide care and aid to the people not shooting at us, so waiting for a better option simply isn't.
S-2 Intelligence Brief//13NOV2022
//SECRET//
Operation/Patrol Time:
- 1130 Local
Weather/Forecast Information:
- Current Temp: 58F | Today's High: 68F | Tonight's Low: 42F | Current Humidity: 60% | Wind out of the SE at 7-10 mph, with occasional gusts up to 15 mph.
Lighting/Visibility Factors:
- Clear & Sunny | Visibility greater than or equal to 10NM (nautical miles) | Sunset tonight is 1743 & sunrise tomorrow is 0731.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
- Confirmed presence of at least 1x 9K22M Tunguska (SA-19 "Grison") centrally located at an outpost in [GRIDREF 120200], posing an imminent threat to both transient and combat aviation operations across the Severkuldzha area. Additionally, various MANPAD systems have been spotted and confirmed in use by NWRC regulars, with an increase in their employment seen as of recent, particularly in lieu of recent successful strikes against more capable Turkmen air defense systems.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- NWRC troop movements across the Southern Inhabited Shelf (SIS) seem to be aimed at rallying fighters and uniformed Corps regulars to the roads and lands south of Sultanbent, while also attempting to perform a channeled retrograde of able forces from the western and eastern ends of the Severkuldzha plateau.
Local/Tactical-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- Force concentrations encountered during mounted patrols across the battalion over the last ten days indicate a continued effort to push infantry and fighting vehicles south, though not in a manner consistent with efforts to take and hold any particular position of either strategic or tactical value. Instead, S-2 believes with a high degree of confidence that these NWRC forces are attempting to break through our proverbial lines to rally with a contingent of recon and mechanized forces that have been cut off since the capture of this airfield. As mentioned in the NOTAM, the close proximity of a hostile Tunguska which is able to effectively deny the safe use of both airfields is a threat that cannot be tolerated.
Special Info/Patrol Objective-specific Intelligence
- It is undetermined as to the exact strength of forces still holding the compound in and around the targeted system itself, but it can be said with a high level of certainty that given the mobile nature of the Tunguska, these forces would have either relocated the system if their position at this location did not serve a greater value. Expect fortifications in and around the compound, and several patrols in the surrounding area. NWRC forces are believed to still be within the village of Khalu Khan, and this remains the most likely source of reactionary or counterattacking forces as the platoon pushes on the objective.
- For assault considerations, it is possible that a fair amount of ordnance in the form of 9M311 missiles and other secondary explosive hazards is on-site to support the continued deployment of the Tunguska. Remain cognizant of explosive use which may start unintended secondary explosions in the form of ammunition/ordnance detonation and/or cookoff.